What if... Black Swan Events

What if... the Earth explodes

As a Science Fiction and Fantasy writer, I get to let my mind wander through the vast landscape of "what if" scenarios—alternate realities, unexpected twists, and the limitless possibilities that stretch beyond the ordinary. One particularly fascinating concept that fuels my imagination is the idea of Black Swan Events. But what exactly is a Black Swan Event, and why does it hold such power in speculative fiction?

Understanding Black Swan Events

A Black Swan Event, as coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, refers to a highly unpredictable occurrence that has a massive impact—often altering history, industries, or the very fabric of reality. These events are rare, seemingly impossible to foresee, and in hindsight, people tend to rationalize them as if they were inevitable all along.

In the real world, think of the sudden rise of the internet, the 2008 financial crisis, or the COVID-19 pandemic—none of these were widely anticipated, yet each reshaped societies across the globe.

The Role of Black Swan Events in Fiction

For Science Fiction and Fantasy writers, Black Swan Events provide the perfect springboard for crafting compelling, high-stakes narratives. What happens when an unanticipated discovery shifts the entire course of human existence? What if an alien civilization suddenly makes contact, but in ways we never imagined? These moments create ripple effects, forcing characters and worlds to adapt, survive, or crumble in the wake of something completely unprecedented.

Black Swan Events in Sci-Fi

Consider Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series—where the fall of a galactic empire is predicted through psychohistory, but the nuances of how civilization collapses remain unknown. Or take Arrival, where a sudden extraterrestrial presence forces humanity to grapple with new ways of thinking and communicating.

Black Swan Events in Fantasy

Fantasy thrives on abrupt world-altering events. Think of Game of Thrones, where the sudden return of dragons shifts the balance of power. Or Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, where the discovery of the One Ring unknowingly sets events into motion that will determine the fate of Middle-earth.

Why Black Swan Events Captivate Us

At their core, Black Swan Events serve as powerful narrative devices because they challenge our perceptions of reality. They force us to ask deeper questions about fate, chance, and human adaptability. They remind us that, no matter how much we plan, the universe is often unpredictable—and sometimes, the most unexpected occurrences lead to the most profound transformations.

As a writer, embracing these events allows stories to venture beyond the predictable, weaving together worlds where the unforeseen can—and will—change everything. The question isn’t if a Black Swan Event will happen, but when, and how the characters will rise (or fall) in response.

How Preppers Respond to Black Swan Events

Preparation for the seemingly impossible event can be scary and intriguing at the same time. It gives your mind the chance to wander at the possibilities, determine which ones could be a possibility, and what can you do to change your mindset on how you prep everyday. I have found much of how we already prep is fairly the same to how we would prep for a Black Swan Event.

1. Stockpiling Essentials

   1. Since Black Swan Events can disrupt supply chains, preppers ensure they have food, water, medical supplies, and other necessities to sustain themselves during crises.

   2. Follow similar guidelines to everyday prepping, but with longer term needs.

2. Self-Sufficiency

   1. Many preppers develop skills like gardening, hunting, and off-grid living to reduce reliance on external systems that may collapse.

   2. Depending on your location, plan on bugging in versus bugging out, as most of these events are unpredictable and may leave you with no option but to stay where you are.

3. Financial Preparedness

   1. Economic Black Swan Events, like market crashes, can devastate savings.

   2. Preppers often diversify assets, invest in precious metals, and stockpile items to barter with (potentially the "new" currency of the land).

4. Security Measures

   1. Some events lead to civil unrest or increased crime.

   2. Preppers may focus on home security, self-defense training, weapons and ammunition, and community-building for mutual protection.

5. Adaptability

   1. Since Black Swan Events are unpredictable, preppers emphasize flexibility

   2. Having multiple contingency plans and the ability to pivot when circumstances change.

While no one can predict the next Black Swan Event, preppers aim to be ready for anything. Do you think prepping is a wise strategy, or do you prefer a more go-with-the-flow approach?

Rashanna Till